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US Dollar Backs Off As Markets Brace for NFP, Rescue Plan Vote

 

October 3 2008  11:15 GMT

LONDON (Reuters) -- The US dollar pulled back against the Euro and the British Pound in overnight trading. Looming event risk is likely to continue weighing on the greenback as the US House of Representatives is set to vote on the US Treasury’s financial market rescue plan while expectations suggest the economy lost 105 thousand jobs in September. The Euro retraced higher in late overnight trading, regaining position above the 1.38 level. The next level of near-term resistance is found at 1.3982, with support at 1.3697. The Sterling also corrected some of the losses sustained in US hours, retaking the 1.77 mark. Resistance is seen at 1.7809, with support at 1.7548. The service sector shrank for a sixth consecutive month in September according to the AIG Performance of Service Index. The metric printed at 44.9, a slight improvement over last month's reading at 39.3, a 5-year low. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, allowing for the uptick. That said, the economy continues to face substantial headwinds both domestically and abroad, keeping the reading below the key 50 "boom-bust" level. Looking at trading in index swaps, the market is pricing in 150 basis points in additional monetary easing from the RBA over the next 12 months.
TD Securities Inflation ticked higher for the 12th consecutive month, printing at 4.5% in the year to September. The reading is unlikely to derail the Reserve Bank of Australia’s plan to aggressively cut interest rates in the coming months. Bank Governor Glenn Stevens has said that inflation will peak at 5% in the fourth quarter and has started easing rates under that assumption. The reading at 4.5% remains within those bounds, suggesting rate cuts remain on schedule for the time being.

Failed Bail-Out Vote, Busy Calendar Spell Forex Volatility

October 1 2008  10:30 GMT

LONDON (Reuters) --The US Dollar sharply sold off in the minutes following the American legislature’s rejection of a $700bn financial rescue plan. The currency found itself fighting off the bears to rally in Asian trading. Given the reaction by the US market, Tokyo and Hong Kong equities indices fell less than many had originally anticipated. Forex traders may see additional volatility through European trading as major numbers such as the German Unemployment Rate and Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index estimates are released. Failure of the US Government to pass the financial rescue plan was met by sharp volatility in the forex market, driving the Euro to a high of 1.4563 from a low of 1.4349 against the US Dollar in the minutes immediately following the legislation’s rejection. Sterling also shot up by 140 pips to a high of 1.8180 as the news quickly gyrated asset markets around the world. The day’s trading saw both pairs fall back below the levels seen prior to the news. EURUSD and GBPUSD now find themselves hugging Fibonacci support at 1.4322 and 1.8025, respectively. After having fallen to a record low in July, the UK GFK Consumer Confidence Survey rose for a second straight month in September to -32. The sentiment indicator, which asks consumers and employers about their future expectations for the UK economy, continued to display the affect of falling fuel prices on the pocket books of the British. When questioned about their Climate for Major Purchases, people increased their expectations by the most since the start of 2007. Retail Sales rose in the 12 months through August by 3.3%, beating forecasts of a -0.5% decline in the metric for the month.

Risk aversion boosts gold, platinum slips

September 30 2008  13:45 GMT

LONDON (Reuters) --Gold erased losses and climbed higher on Friday, as increased risk-aversion boosted the metal's safe-haven appeal and the dollar trimmed gains against the euro. The market moved in erratic trade, as investors fretted over the future of a key $700 billion U.S. bailout plan to rescue the banking system after talks at the White House broke down in acrimony. Platinum tumbled almost 4 percent and palladium dropped 2.4 percent on data showing a decline in car sales, highlighting poor demand prospects for the metal, widely used as a component in automotive catalytic converters. Spot gold was up at $883.10/885.10 per ounce by 1229 GMT, a rise of $7.8, or 0.85 percent, compared with the previous nominal close of $875.70. Earlier, it fell as low as $866.20 an ounce. "The main driver right now is the dollar, but also risk aversion," said analyst Barbara Lambrecht at Commerzbank in Germany.  The euro climbed to around 1.4648 against the dollar, after trading around $1.4580 earlier in the session. The dollar also fell 1 percent against the Japanese yen. U.S. congressional leaders will try again on Friday to save the bank bailout plan. Hopes for a speedy deal dimmed when a group of conservative Republican lawmakers proposed an alternative plan on Thursday.

Gold climbs as dollar slides, oil jumps

September 23 2008  11:30 GMT

LONDON (Reuters) --Gold rose almost 2 percent on Friday, recovering from earlier losses, as the dollar slipped sharply versus the euro and oil rallied more than $7 a barrel. Gold slipped more than 3 percent earlier in the session after the U.S. government said pledged $50 billion to guarantee money-market mutual funds, curbed short-selling and crafted a sweeping plan to mop up toxic mortgage debt, sending global stock markets soaring. However, a turnaround in the foreign exchange markets that sent the euro to session highs against the dollar, coupled with a sharp rise in the oil price, helped the metal rally to a day high of $868.65 per ounce. At New York's last quote of 2:25 p.m. EDT (1825 GMT), spot gold  was at $862.20/866.20, against $847.25 an ounce at the nominal New York close on Thursday.

A weaker dollar typically benefits gold, which is often bought as a currency hedge. "The impact of the plan has been for the dollar to weaken, and essentially that has been the catalyst for a move up in all markets," said Calyon analyst Robin Bhar. "Equities are exploding, base metals are higher and gold as well has taken part." Sharply higher global markets also prompted investors to switch funds to the equities from the commodity sector. Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management, said that while the U.S. government bailout plan was highly inflationary, it would take gold traders time to sift through the potential implications of the various proposals. U.S. gold contract for December delivery GCZ8 settled down $32.30, or 3.6 percent, at $864.70 an ounce on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold has benefited from a wave of risk aversion that has hit the markets this week after U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday.

Financial havoc wallops US dollar and stocks 

September 19 2008  12:00 GMT

LONDON (Reuters) --Stocks and the U.S. dollar fell sharply on Monday after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy protection, sending safe-haven Treasury debt and gold prices soaring as the financial system bent under severe pressure. U.S. stock market futures were down around 3 percent, pointing to sharply lower open, while major European markets were set for falls of between 3.5 to 4 percent STXEc1 FDXc1 FCEc1. Rapid-fire developments on Wall Street, only a week after the U.S. government bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, left some analysts literally speechless and sent shockwaves through almost every asset class. The dollar plunged 1.9 percent against the yen, on track for its biggest decline since February 2007, as investors' willingness to take risks evaporated. "It's a pure flight to quality right now," said Adam Donaldson, head debt strategist at Australia's Commonwealth Bank. "The big concern is how Lehman and other banks unwind their credit default contracts," he added. "Nobody knows how that will play out. While a lack of confidence felled Lehman, a lack of short-term funding was hurting one of the world's largest insurers American International Group Inc. The firm was asking the Federal Reserve for a bridge loan of $40 billion, according to the New York Times, an unprecedented move that further battered the dollar and knocked down two-year U.S. government debt yields to a five-month low.

Fed keeps rates on hold, Dollar rises

September 16 2008  18:30 GMT

NEW YORK (Reuters) --The U.S. Federal Reserve left the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 2 percent. However, the FOMC statement released after the rate decision was less dovish than expected and the U.S. dollar rallied against the world’s most heavily traded currencies. In fact, despite the recent turmoil in the world’s financial markets, the Fed is still very concerned in anchoring inflation expectations to promote price stability. The Fed Expressed Deep Concern About the Recent Credit Crunch. Despite the unanimous vote to keep rates on hold, the U.S. Federal Reserve is concerned that the recent events in today's very volatile financial markets may have second round effects in the rest of the economy and push the United States into a much deeper recession.  "Strains in financial markets have increased significantly and labor markets have weakened further", the Fed said. Indeed, earlier in the day, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced an injection of 70 billion dollars in repurchase agreements to ensure market liquidity and avert a violent credit crunch by having banks to lend to each other. In fact, money markets have been in considerable stress after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the acquisition or Merrill Lynch by Bank of America and rumors that AIG, one of the world’s largest insurance firms, could run out of cash. The next FOMC meeting is on October 29 and there is a 58.2 percent probability the Federal Reserve will cut rates by at least 25 bps, according to Fed Funds futures.

Oil falls to new 5-month lows, awaits OPEC 

September 10 2008  10:30 GMT

LONDON (Reuters) -- Oil prices fell to a new five-month low on Tuesday, pressured by a rise in the U.S. dollar and expectations that OPEC will not cut output when it meets later in the day. U.S. crude for October delivery was down $1.39 a barrel at $104.95 by 5:31 a.m. EDT, after briefly falling more than $2 to touch a new five-month low of $104.23 a barrel. London Brent crude was $1.41 down at $102.03 a barrel, closing in on the $100 mark.The dollar's rise to a one-year peak against a basket of currencies has spurred a shift away from commodities that has driven down prices across the spectrum. Oil is under pressure despite the potential threat from Hurricane Ike, which is headed towards the U.S. Gulf and offshore oil fields that produce a quarter of U.S. oil and 15 percent of its natural gas. "If it weren't for the hurricanes, oil should be below $100 a barrel, considering the sentiment," said Tetsu Emori, fund manager at Astmax Co Ltd. Oil has fallen nearly 30 percent from a record peak of $147.27 a barrel on July 11, depressed partly by a fall in demand from the world's top energy consumer the United States, where the economy is battling to ward off recession. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have expressed concern about rising oil supplies, but are not expected to go as far as agreeing to cut output. Ali al-Naimi, oil minister from Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, said oil markets were fairly well balanced.

Dollar backs off from highs as jobs data loom 

September 5 2008  10:30 GMT

NEW YORK (Reuters) --The dollar slipped on Friday from highs this week against many major currencies ahead of the August U.S. employment report, while an exodus from riskier bets such as leveraged carry trades amid a sharp fall in stock markets boosted the yen. Escalating worries about global economic growth spooked investors and led to a 3 percent slide on Wall Street on Thursday, a sell off followed in Asia and early European trading. Market players said investors were bailing out of leveraged carry trades, or positions funded by borrowing yen at low rates to buy higher yielding currencies and commodities. This trading pattern has until recently boosted the dollar too, as U.S. investors liquidate holdings of foreign assets and repatriate the funds back home.  But two reports Thursday on the U.S. labor market reignited fears tightening credit conditions will herald another wave of economic weakness. All eyes now are fixed on the U.S. non-farm payrolls report at 8:30 a.m. EDT. "There's still clearly an axe (desire) to buy dollars," said Peter Frank, currency strategist at Societe Generale in London, noting the "stunningly strong" build up of bets in favor of the dollar in recent weeks. "But some of those excessive speculative long positions could be unwound and we have a sharp dollar sell-off. It could be only one day, but it's a short term risk," especially if the employment report is gloomier than forecast. At 3:45 a.m. EDT the euro was up a quarter of a percent on the day against the dollar at $1.4285, having traded at a pos-October 2007 low of $1.4215 on Thursday. 

Dollar at 10 months high, Oil tumbles below $109 as Gustav concerns recede

September 3 2008  10:30 GMT

NEW YORK (Reuters) --Oil plunged almost $3 a barrel on Tuesday to its lowest since mid-April, extending the previous day's rout on initial signs that a weakened Hurricane Gustav spared major Gulf oil facilities. Early checks by some U.S. refiners reported no damage from Gustav, which weakened to Category 2 before roaring ashore near Port Fourchon, Louisiana, on Monday. At least two others were expected to dip into the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, helping ensure steady gasoline and diesel supplies. U.S. crude fell to $108.55 a barrel by 2:47 a.m. EDT, extending Monday's $4 slide to stand almost $3 below trading levels late on Monday and down almost $7 from Friday's close as traders discounted Gustav, which had been called the biggest threat to the sector since 2005's devastation. Because of the U.S. public holiday a day ago, the New York Mercantile Exchange did not issue any official settlement prices. London Brent crude fell $1.86 or 1.7 percent to $107.55. With Gustav now just a tropical storm as it churns further inland, energy companies were starting to assess the potential damage as they looked to restart the 1.3 million barrels per day of offshore oil production and over 2.1 million bpd of refining throughput that was shut ahead of the storm.

The dollar jumped to a 10-month peak against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, with the sharp drop in oil prices giving a boost just as investors keep dumping European currencies on a souring global growth outlook.   The dollar index, a gauge of its performance against six major currencies, climbed 0.8 percent to a high of 77.881, breaking chart resistance at 77.85. The move came as the euro slid 0.4 percent to a seven-month low of $1.4541 and hit a five-month low against the yen at 157.12 yen.

  Oil near $120 as Gustav threatens U.S. Gulf, Dollar pares losses

September 2 2008  16:15 GMT

NEW YORK (Reuters) --Oil briefly touched $120 a barrel on Thursday, its fourth day of gains, boosted by the threat of damage to U.S. oil installations from Tropical Storm Gustav. The storm is forecast to reach hurricane status as it approaches the Gulf of Mexico, home to a quarter of U.S. crude oil production and 15 percent of its natural gas output. U.S. crude oil for October delivery was up 95 cents at $119.10 a barrel by 9:50 a.m. EDT. It reached an intraday high of $120.50 a barrel. London Brent crude was up $1.01 at $117.23 a barrel. "Gustav...is on track to pose a sizeable threat to both upstream and downstream production capacity," Thomas Stenvoll, energy strategist at UBS, said in a research note. "The impact of Gustav on the downstream sector could be felt more acutely -- at least in the short term -- as there is no U.S. government inventory that can be released." The International Energy Agency has said it is ready to release strategic oil stocks if needed. The agency, adviser on energy issues to 27 industrialized countries, released oil product stocks in 2005 after Hurricane Katrina. Gustav is forecast to hit the U.S. Gulf Coast around Monday and will be the first major hurricane to threaten U.S. energy installations since hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005.                                                                        The U.S. dollar pared losses against the euro and yen on Thursday after data showed the U.S. economy expanded at a stronger-than-first-thought 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter. The dollar was last trading at 109.46 yen, down 0.1 percent on the day, from 109.25 yen before the release of the data. The euro was at 1.4739 from 1.4765 before the report.

  Oil rallies to $117 on hurricane fears, Confidence jumps

August  26 2008  15:30 GMT

NEW YORK (Reuters) --Oil rose nearly $2 to around $117 a barrel on Tuesday, as concerns grew about possible disruption to U.S. offshore oil and gas output from a strengthening Hurricane Gustav. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Gustav, a category one hurricane, had strengthened slightly in the central Caribbean as it churned toward southwestern Haiti. Weather models showed it either heading in a westerly direction toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or steering northwest and moving into the central Gulf of Mexico by early Sunday, to potentially disrupt offshore oil and gas production. U.S. crude, which fell more than $2 earlier in the session, was $1.86 higher at $116.97 by 10:44 a.m. EDT. London Brent crude rose $1.59 to $115.62. Eric Wilhelm, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc, said Hurricane Gustav may threaten production areas off the coasts of Louisiana and Texas by the middle of next week by which time the storm may have gained in intensity to be a major hurricane. "All of the oil platforms off Texas and Louisiana will probably be at risk, but that's real long-range," Wilhelm told Reuters, adding that Gustav was expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico by Monday possibly as a category 3 hurricane. Earlier, oil fell as the dollar hit a six-month high against the euro on Tuesday after weak German data highlighted a flagging euro zone economy. Dollar strength can limit the appeal of oil and commodities as an inflation hedge.      "Short term trading on oil should now be dominated this week by tracking Gustav," said Olivier Jakob, oil analyst at Petromatrix in Zug, Switzerland.
Consumer confidence recovered far more than expected in August as worries over inflation eased, the Conference Board said on Tuesday. The Conference Board said its index measuring consumers' mood jumped to 56.9 this month from July's 51.9, reaching the highest level since May. That was well above economists' expectations for a reading of 53.0, according to the median of their forecasts in a Reuters poll. The 79 forecasts ranged from 50.0 to 56.2. The improvement in sentiment came during a month when oil prices retreated further from July's record highs but consumers' evaluation of their present situation and the job market deteriorated further.

  U.K. Retail Sales Increased Unexpectedly in July

August  25 2008  11:30 GMT

LONDON (Bloomberg) --U.K. retail sales unexpectedly rose in July as consumers shunned department stores, seeking out discounted goods and snapping up mobile phones.  Sales gained 0.8 percent after falling 4.3 percent the month before, which was the biggest decline since at least 1986, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists had expected a 0.2 percent drop for July, the median of 32 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey showed.  On the year, sales rose 2.1 percent, the weakest since February 2006. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said last week the economy faces a "difficult and painful adjustment'' as falling house prices and rising inflation eat into the earnings of consumers. Separate figures showed business investment fell.  "The weakness in the housing market and high inflation take a while to feed through,'' said Vicky Redwood, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. "Retail sales figures will get worse later in the year.''  The pound gained as much as 0.4 percent against the dollar after the report, trading as high as $1.8707 compared with $1.8585 yesterday.  The central bank said last week that policy makers placed " a rather greater weight than usual'' on survey data for retail sales because of the volatility of official figures.                                    Business investment fell 1.9 percent in the second quarter compared with the first, sharper than the 0.7 percent drop estimated by economists surveyed before the report. From a year ago, investment rose 1.9 percent, down from 4.5 percent in the first quarter, the statistics office said.  Other reports suggest consumers are starting to curb their spending. Sales in U.K. shops open at least a year fell an annual 0.9 percent in July, the British Retail Consortium, which represents 80 percent of stores, said in an Aug. 12 report.  "It takes a lot to push consumers into a recession,'' said James Shugg, an economist at Westpac Banking Corp. in London. "The broader trend in the numbers is still very much toward weakness.'' German discount retailers Aldi Group and Lidl won more of the U.K. grocery market in the last three months, according to London- based researcher Taylor Nelson Sofres Plc. Aldi's share climbed 0.4 percentage point to 3 percent, while Lidl increased its portion of the market by 0.1 percentage point to 2.4 percent in the 12 weeks ended Aug. 10, compared with a year earlier.  Today's report from the government statistics office also showed revisions for previous months, which strengthened gains recorded in May and further depressed the drop in June. May's gain was revised to 3.9 percent from 3.6 percent. The drop in June now is estimated to be 4.3 percent instead of 3.9 percent. The statistics office said "other stores'' including those that sell mobile phones, games, clocks and jewellery were the strongest of the five categories into which overall sales fall, gaining 2.8 percent. Non-specialized stores, or department stores, suffered a decline of 2.6 percent in July.

Dollar hits 2008 highs, Oil falls below $112

August 22 2008  12:00 GMT

LONDON (Reuters) --The dollar renewed its broad rally on Tuesday, lifted to its highest for the year against a basket of currencies by another dip in commodities prices and ongoing worries about slowing global economic growth. Falling equities, another wave of concern over the global financial system and tightening strains in money markets are all feeding the view that the United States will not be the only one to suffer weak growth and fragile asset markets.  Oil fell below $112 a barrel on Tuesday and metals came under pressure, as concerns over possible supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico were quashed after a tropical storm swept through without causing major damage. U.S. crude fell 97 cents to $111.90 a barrel by 0644 GMT, or about 24 percent lower than its peak of more than $147 in mid-July. London Brent crude dropped 89 cents to $111.05 a barrel. "There is strong support for prices to drift lower towards $100 a barrel. We are only about $10 a barrel away, and I won't be surprised to see $105 a barrel by next month," said Jonathan Kornafel, Asia director at U.S.-based options trader Hudson Capital Energy. lightens inflationary pressures, thus paving the way for central banks around the world to cut interest rates. The central banks most likely to cut rates in the coming months could be those in Europe, Australia and New Zealand, thus putting downward pressure on their currencies versus the dollar. But one central bank likely to keep rates on hold for some time, as it did on Tuesday, is the Bank of Japan, whose base rate remains 0.5 percent. For euro traders, the next focus is Germany's ZEW index of investor sentiment for August, due at 0900 GMT. "The strength in the dollar index has little to do with dollar strength but more the weakness of the other currencies," said Michael Klawitter, senior currency strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt. "The market's focus is just very one-sided. At the moment the market has decided to focus on the weakness of the euro zone and hasn't taken a balanced view of risks in the U.S.," he said

Dollar rallies, hits 6-month high Vs euro on economic worries

August 20, 2008 14:00 GMT

LONDON (Reuters) -The dollar raced to a six-month high against the euro on Friday, propelled by growing worries about the health of the euro zone economy and further lifted by liquidation in commodity markets.  The dollar's rally knocked an already floundering sterling to two-year lows near $1.85, while the U.S. currency also powered to a seven-month high against a basket of six major currencies. "It's not just the U.S. economy that has problems now, it's clearly spilling over to the rest of the world, we saw this yesterday with GDP numbers in Europe ... no one believes the European Central Bank is going to tighten any more and they're moving to price in a rate cut," said Martin McMahon, FX strategist at Credit Suisse in Zurich. Data on Thursday showed the euro zone economy contracted in the second quarter for the first time in the common currency's lifetime. "The dollar has also broken through important technical levels. The $1.50 area was the base of the trading range in the past four, five months and now that it's gone through, there's clearly open space in front and the question is how far will euro/dollar ease before it finds support," McMahon added. By 1043 GMT, the euro was down 0.6 percent on the day at $1.4715, having earlier touched $1.4700 -- its lowest since Feb. 20. The dollar was further supported by steep falls in commodity prices, triggered in part by mounting worries about weakening global demand. Oil has fallen more than 20 percent from the all-time high above $147 set in July, while the Reuters-Jeffries/CRB index , a global index of commodity prices, has slid almost 18 percent from its July peak. "People have been selling commodities that they funded out of dollars, so they've been needing to cover their commodity positions by buying dollars and that's generated a broad dollar rally," said Chris Turner, head of FX strategy at ING. The dollar has rallied across the board, rising more than 5 percent against the euro this month alone, as investors shifted their view on the global economy's ability to withstand the U.S. downturn.

Oil falls below $113 as dollar firms, economic worries

August 19, 2008 11:30 GMT

SINGAPORE (Reuters) --Oil fell more than $1 a barrel on Tuesday as part of a broader commodities sell-off on the firmer U.S. dollar, which countered concerns over possible supply disruptions due to the Russia-Georgia clash. Worries over slowing global demand also put prices under pressure, after world No. 2 consumer China posted a surprise drop in July crude imports. U.S. crude fell 90 cents to $113.55 a barrel by 0632 GMT, hovering at its lowest since early May. The contract has fallen more than $30, or around 23 percent, from the record above $147 a barrel touched on July 11. London Brent crude slid $1.19 to $111.48. "Oil prices have again sagged lower despite the potential threat that the Russia-Georgia conflict poses to oil supplies. The firm U.S. dollar is weighing on the oil price," David Moore, an analyst at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a note. The U.S. dollar rose to a six-month high against the euro as concerns over the global economy have kept other major currencies under pressure.  Investors had bought oil and other commodities such as gold in earlier months as a hedge against inflation and a weak U.S. dollar, helping push oil prices to a record above $147 in July. Crude oil had risen sevenfold at its peak last month, after climbing for six years on growing demand from China and other developing economies. But worries over a slowdown in global demand were given impetus after China reported an unexpected 7 percent fall in July crude oil imports, the steepest monthly drop since January 2005.

Dollar up on outlook for lower oil, CPI on tap

August 18, 2008 12:15 GMT

NEW YORK (Reuters) --Asian stocks rose on Monday and the U.S. dollar hit a six-month high against the euro as oil briefly slipped below $115 a barrel and a view gained ground that the currency's long-term decline is nearing an end. Government bond prices also climbed, suggesting the rally in equities thinly covered darker fears that the impact of the U.S. economic slowdown on the rest of the world may have been underestimated. Popular trades such as betting against the dollar and financial sector shares while also speculating on a rise in oil prices were slashed last week. On Friday the euro recorded its largest single-day decline against the dollar in 7-½ years. However, the key remained the direction of oil prices. "The dollar has been strengthening due to a deterioration in economic data outside of the U.S. coupled with low oil prices," said Ashley Davies, currency strategist with UBS in Singapore. "If oil were to start creeping higher again in the absence of clear fundamentals, it would raise the risk of a partial reversal of recent moves," he said in a note. The euro fell to a six-month low at $1.4908 before recovering slightly to around $1.4970 by 0430 GMT. It has plunged around 6 cents in the last week. The dollar eased back 0.3 percent to around 109.90 yen having hit a seven-month high around 110.40 earlier. On a trade-weighted basis, the U.S. dollar on Friday rose to a 2008 high against seven major currencies, according to Federal Reserve data. Oil prices crept above $116 a barrel on worries that fighting between Russia and Georgia would disrupt energy exports from the Caspian region. Oil hit a three-month low of $114.62 a barrel on Friday. After hitting an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel in July front-month U.S. light crude has tumbled 21 percent on fears about slower demand from developed economies fighting against looming recessions. Gross domestic product data due this week for the euro zone and Japan could renew such fears, particularly with both economies expected to contract on a quarterly basis.

Dollar soars to multi-month highs, cements upswing

August 14, 2008 15:00 GMT

NEW YORK (Reuters) --The dollar surged on Friday, firmly on track for its biggest weekly rise in 3-1/2 years as fears intensified that the U.S. economic slowdown is spreading around the world.  Most major currencies, including the euro, sterling and Swiss franc, fell 1 percent or more against the greenback, which some analysts suggest may finally be emerging from its broad downtrend that has lasted almost seven years.  On Thursday, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet highlighted the increasing risks to euro zone growth, Japan's government said the country's economy  maybe  in recession, and one closely-watched measure of British house prices showed the biggest monthly fall in July on record. At 1145 GMT the euro down 1.4 percent on the day at $1.5105 , a five-month low  and down nearly 10 cents from its high hit last month above $1.60.  It fell below major technical support to below its 200-day moving average at $1.5225. It hasn't closed below this technical level since March 2006. The dollar rose 1.2 percent against a basket of currencies to 75.42,  its strongest since late February. It is up almost 3 percent on the week, the biggest rise since the first week of January, 2005.  Sterling slid 1 percent to a 17-month low of $1.9217 , while the dollar gained as much as 0.4 percent against the yen to 109.95 yen, its highest since January.

  Oil near three-month low on weak demand, higher supplies

August 13, 2008 12:30 GMT

NEW YORK (Reuters) --Oil hovered at a three-month low on Tuesday as concerns over tight supplies eased amid evidence of rising OPEC output and declining U.S. demand in the face of a weak economic outlook.  The losses extended a steep slide from the mid-July peak above $147 a barrel and came despite a storm in the Gulf of Mexico that was curbing oil output, shipping and refining. U.S. light crude fell $1.13 to hit $120.27 a barrel, while London Brent crude shed $1.03 to $119.65 a barrel by 10:09 p.m. EDT. "The sentiment is more bearish now than before as concern over slower U.S. economic growth is impeaching demand," said David Moore, commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. High energy prices have been of concern in the United States, the world's largest consumer of oil, already battered by a housing and credit crisis. The losses came after a Reuters survey showed OPEC supply rose for a third consecutive month in July mainly because of increased output from the world's top exporter Saudi Arabia.  The boost in production from OPEC comes as soaring energy prices and an economic slowdown cut into energy consumption in the United States and Europe. "We do expect oil prices to trend lower in the longer term," Moore said, adding that high prices in general would only curb demand.

 Dollar rises to five week high Vs euro, buoyed by US data

August 11, 2008 10:00 GMT

NEW YORK (Reuters) --The U.S. dollar climbed to five-week peaks against the euro and three-week highs against the British pound on Friday as better-than-expected economic data allayed worries about a much sharper slow down. The yen, on the other hand, gained broadly, benefiting from heightened stress in financial markets on news that General Motors had hefty losses in the second quarter. That dragged U.S. stocks lower and triggered safe-haven bids for Treasuries.  "U.S. dollar sentiment has certainly changed for the better over the last couple of weeks," said Mark Frey, head foreign exchange trader at Custom House, a global payments dealer in Victoria, British Columbia.  "The U.S. economy has gone through some tough phases, but the jobs number was negative, but still better than expected. I think, more importantly, recent consumer confidence numbers and leading indicators, which are more forward-looking, have been more positive," he added. Friday's data showed that U.S. employers eliminated 51,000 jobs in July, lower than market expectations for a payrolls decline of 75,000. A separate report said U.S. factory activity was unchanged in July, compared with the previous month, but above market forecasts.  In late New York trading, the euro was down 0.4 percent at $1.5538 . It dropped to $1.5514 immediately after the U.S. jobs data, its lowest since June 24, according to Reuters data.  The ICE Futures U.S. dollar index rose as high as 73.527 , building on July's gains, which saw it post its biggest monthly gain since January 2007.  The index, which measures the dollar's performance against a basket of six currencies, was last up 0.4 percent at 73.461.Sterling, meanwhile, fell to three-week lows at $1.9729 . It last traded at $1.9732, down half a percent from late on Thursday. Following the latest U.S. data, investors widely expect the Fed's policy-making Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to keep its benchmark federal funds rate steady at 2 percent when it meets on Tuesday. The implied chances for rate increases rise steadily from there to 36 percent in September and 66 percent in October, but the first 25 basis-point-hike is not fully priced until the January FOMC meeting.

 

 

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